鮑威爾發佈會:利率尚未充分 暫停加息

 北京時間周四凌晨3點30分,美聯儲主席鮑威爾舉行新聞發佈會,對後續的貨幣政策給出最新指引。在早些時候的決議中,美聯儲如期將加息幅度放慢至25個基點,將聯邦基金利率區間上調至4.50%-4.75%。

  與市場預期一致,鮑威爾在開場講話中繼續強調「加息事業仍未完成」。對於本周繼續加息25個基點的決策,鮑威爾也表示在接連兩次FOMC會議上放慢加息步伐,將幫助美聯儲更好地評估實現政策目標的情況,進一步加息也將幫助實現限制性的貨幣政策立場。美聯儲仍將視後續的經濟數據和前景來做出決策。

  美聯儲主席強調,歷史「強烈警告」我們不能過早地放鬆貨幣政策,美聯儲將維持目前的舉措,直到實現2%通脹目標的事業大功告成。


  暫停加息成熱門議題

  在後續的問答環節中,鮑威爾在回答第一個問題時就明確表示,貨幣政策委員會判斷目前利率並沒有達到充分限制性,這也是後面還要繼續加息的原因。

  由於本次政策會議並沒有經濟預測和點陣圖,所以也有記者提問去年12月的點陣圖是否仍能反映出FOMC當前的加息路徑預期。


  鮑威爾表示,在去年12月的經濟預期中,FOMC委員們的平均預期是本輪加息終點將在5%-5.25%之間。我們要到下個月的會議才會更新點陣圖,現在只能說繼續加息是實現通脹目標的合適舉措。目前美聯儲並沒有決定終值利率到底會在哪裡。要管理加息不足的風險是非常困難的,如果6到9個月後發現加息不夠,屆時可能會出現通脹預期的風險。


  隨後,被稱為「新美聯儲通訊社」的知名宏觀記者尼克·蒂米勞斯詢問美聯儲主席:接下來還要繼續加息的原因是什麼,為什麼現在不能停止加息。


  鮑威爾回應稱,過去一年加息450個基點后,我們正在討論還需要進行多次加息(a couple of more rate hikes)才能達到合適的限制性區間。為什麼美聯儲會認為這麼做是合適的?因為通脹仍處於非常火熱的狀態。但美聯儲也知道貨幣政策的滯后性,以及實際生活的不確定性。這也是為什麼我們降低加息速度,進一步觀察通貨膨脹速度下降的狀態。


  蒂米勞斯進一步追問鮑威爾,本周FOMC是否有討論過暫停加息的條件。美聯儲主席委婉地表示,等到三周後會議紀要出爐時,會披露更多的細節。這兩天FOMC委員們花了很多時間討論有關暫停加息、經濟狀況的問題。


  對於「暫停加息的前提條件」,鮑威爾表示到3月FOMC前還會有兩份CPI數據和非農報告。更多的數據出爐也將影響美聯儲的經濟前景預期,同樣會反映到貨幣政策中。

  不過美聯儲主席也繼續強調年內不會降息的立場。鮑威爾表示,如果美聯儲預期的經濟前景成真,那麼在今年看不到降息。但如果通脹下降的速度比預期快,屆時美聯儲也會有對應的政策。在發佈會中鮑威爾也表示「今天可以第一次說反通貨膨脹的進程已經開始了」。

  最後,對於今天美聯儲利率決議中全面刪除有關公共衛生問題的表述,鮑威爾也解釋稱,他的親身經歷說明了新冠疫情仍然在那裡,但對於美國經濟而言已經不是重要的影響因素。美聯儲一直在尋找合適的時機拿掉相關表述,現在就到時候了。

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